It's very difficult to know exactly what is going on. It's fact that Russia has invaded Ukraine and there is fighting going on though. Whatever lines were there a hundred years ago have been replaced and people have made their lives in that framework. Changing those lines by force is not 'annexation' it is warlike. Crimea seems to have been a test to see what could be achieved / (gotten away with).
Certainly, I don't think there is any doubt of it turning very nasty for a long time. We are getting mixed feedback of both serious fighting and bloodless encounters here in the UK. I suppose that is the same of any war until it kicks-in with the soldiers on the ground when they lose their mates and things start to go wrong. Then it gets serious everywhere.
The sanctions seem like nothing / a waste of time, until you see people queueing at the banks due to the currency dropping like a stone. Germany's change of position and Shell kicking millions of pounds into touch will likely hurt far sooner than I had guessed as well.
Fighting in the playground? = No pocket money, bread and water for dinner and sent to your room? My personal opinion is that is a very adult and measured response.